วันเสาร์ที่ 13 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2553

Can Andy Murray Win First Grand Slam at the Australia Open?

The obvious answer to the question is a resounding yes, but all tennis followers will know that to win a Grand Slam takes a special kind of player, who can put in a special kind of effort and who needs to be in top form. He must also be full of confidence, have a good draw and more than his fair share of luck. On top of all that he needs to be aware that there will be at least a dozen players from the world's top 16 who will be playing well above themselves and who are able to raise their games against the bigger players and Murray has a bad habit of losing to some of these players in 'Slam' events.

Murray so far in his Grand Slam career has had at least one of those aspects go against him and when he has made a Grand Slam final in the past he had to face the Grand Slam king himself, Roger Federer.

Murrays recent Grand Slam record reads likes this:

2010 US Open - Lost in Round 3 to Stanislaw Wawrinka in 4 sets.

2010 Wimbledon - Lost in Semi Final to Rafael Nadal in straight sets.

2010 French Open - Lost in 4th round to Tomas Berdych in 4 sets.

2010 Australian Open - Lost in Final to Roger Federer in straight sets.

2009 US Open - Lost in 4th round to Marin Cilic in straight sets.

2009 Wimbledon - Lost in Semi final to Andy Roddick in four sets.

2009 French Open - Lost in Quarter Final to Fernando Gonzalez in four sets.

2009 Australian Open - Lost in 4th round to Fernando Verdasco in four sets.

2008 US Open - Lost in Final to Roger Federer in straight sets.

2008 Wimbledon - Lost in Quarter Final to Rafael Nadal in straight sets.

2008 French Open - Lost in 3rd round to Nicolas Almagro in four sets.

2008 Australian Open - lost in 1st round to JW Tsonga in four sets.

In those 12 Grand Slams, Murray has lost in the final twice, the semi final twice and the quarter final twice, which by most standards is a good record, however it does not remotely compare to the records of Federer and now Rafael Nadal.

Incredibly in the 12 finals listed above, Federer or Nadal has appeared in 11 of them, with the last time neither one of them reaching a Grand Slam final being at the Australian Open in 2008, which was won by Novak Djokovic. Of the 12, Nadal has won 6, including the last 3, while Federer has won 4; the last one being the 2010.

Federer of course holds the world record of 16 Grand Slam wins, while Nadal is catching up quickly with 9 and he is five years younger than Federer.

Therefore if Murray is going to win he is going to have to beat the world's top two in the full knowledge that either one of them or both will almost certainly be peaking and in determined mood to add more Grand Slams to their respective CV's.

Of course Murray holds wins over both of the top two and in fact holds an 8-5 superior head to head lead over Federer, which includes defeating him on the last two times they met. He also defeated Nadal the last time they played, but all of these matches were best of three sets and not the five set matches that he must play in Grand Slams.

Despite his impressive head to head record against Federer, as mentioned above he has never beaten him in a Grand Slam event but does have two wins over Nadal, who he beat in the 2008 US Open semi final and last year defeated him in Australia at the same stage.

The Scot is currently ranked fourth in the world, behind Nadal, Federer and Djokovic, which should provided him a reasonably clear path to the semi final in Melbourne. Also to his advantage is the hard court surface, which he favours over both clay and grass and having reached the final in 2010 he will know that this is a big opportunity for him to make his breakthrough and become the first Brit to win a men's Grand Slam since Fred Perry back in the 1930s.

Murray is third favourite to win the 2011 Australian with odds of around 6/1. The tournament will be played between 17-30 January in Melbourne.

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